The urgency of addressing climate change has prompted extensive discussions about various technologies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Among these, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has emerged as a pivotal solution, particularly in the context of the Paris Climate Agreement. The commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C – with an aspirational target of 1.5°C – underscores the necessity of swiftly scaling up CCS technology. However, a recent study from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway presents a sobering outlook on the critical expansion of CCS needed to meet these climate objectives.
CCS involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions produced from the use of fossil fuels and storing it underground to prevent it from entering the atmosphere. In an era of urgent climate action, applications such as Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACCS) offer paths to achieve negative emissions—essentially absorbing more carbon dioxide than is emitted. As pivotal as these technologies may be, their current usage remains disappointingly minimal.
The study, titled “Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets,” meticulously analyzes historical and projected growth patterns in CCS deployment. Its findings are particularly alarming: the maximum potential capacity for CCS to sequester carbon dioxide throughout the 21st century is outlined to be no more than 600 gigatons (Gt). In stark contrast, many models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast the need for over 1,000 Gt to adhere to climate goals.
Jessica Jewell, an Associate Professor at Chalmers University, emphasizes the urgency of scaling CCS implementation. “Major efforts are needed to bridge the gap between today’s demonstration projects and the extensive deployment required to mitigate climate change,” she observes. The crucial element here is not only the overall capacity but also the timeline for large-scale operation. Delayed deployment diminishes the feasibility of achieving the 1.5°C or 2°C targets, highlighting the pressing need for immediate action.
Presently, the evolution of CCS technology is influenced by policy frameworks such as the EU Net-Zero Industry Act and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Should current plans come to fruition, experts predict that CCS capacity could potentially increase eightfold by 2030. However, historical data serves as a grim warning; previous waves of CCS interest saw project failure rates soar to nearly 90%. Should similar patterns persist, projections may fall short, leaving global temperature targets unattainable.
Tsimafei Kazlou, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Bergen and the primary author of the study, cautions: “If historical failure rates maintain, by 2030, CCS capacity might only be at best double the current figures, insufficient for meeting climate goals.” Therefore, the path forward necessitates not just ambition but a strategic and systematic approach to improve CCS project viability.
CCS technology, like many others, exhibits non-linear growth traits. There are valuable lessons to be gleaned from historical technological advancements such as wind and nuclear power. For CCS to achieve meaningful impact, it must mirror the rapid growth experienced by wind energy in the early 2000s and nuclear energy’s peak in the late 20th century. Jewell asserts, “If CCS can replicate this momentum, the 2°C target could become feasible; however, staying below 1.5°C remains an uphill battle.”
The study underscores that reaching these ambitious climate targets is not solely reliant on CCS. There is an urgent need for accelerated development of other low-carbon technologies—such as solar and wind—to accept the burden that CCS alone cannot shoulder. As Aleh Cherp, a Professor at Central European University, articulates, “Investment in robust support systems is critical for ensuring CCS projects remain financially viable and can contribute effectively to emissions reductions.”
As climate change accelerates, the window for effective action is closing rapidly. The findings of this study serve as a clarion call to policymakers, industry leaders, and the scientific community alike. Developing and deploying CCS is not just a technological challenge, but a pressing political and economic imperative. The collective commitment to robust policy support and investment in a diverse array of renewable technologies is vital for steering the planet towards a sustainable future.
While CCS presents a promising avenue in the fight against climate change, achieving significant deployment is contingent on addressing historical challenges, fostering innovation, and ensuring a multi-faceted approach to emissions reduction. The time for change is now; the stakes have never been higher.